Daily Killings in Mexico Decline Over a Third Under Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Data

The typical figure of everyday homicides per month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to new administrative data. However, security specialists have advised that homicide numbers may not point to improved national security.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Averages

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in last November versus almost 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This data was provided by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded in these past months is remarkably notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, noting that the previous month the least figure of homicides were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Fierce organized crime infighting, alongside the government’s heavily military operations to confront the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than 4x greater than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has attributed her public safety strategy for an seemingly steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The main elements of the President's security plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Greater coordination between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety researchers cautioned that focusing solely on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is especially true considering the increase in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“It would be positive information if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe last year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not valid for gauging the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to accurately identify and categorize bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily killings was additionally an issue because it might hide days when there were particularly spiking levels of killings.

“Using the daily mean makes high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the government can cite the success of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains grappling with severe violence, with several regions in the midst of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to express their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to create a narrative of safety. Politically it’s very successful, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst said.