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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

Yet the latest race is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and longtime strugglers rising together. Under an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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